After The New Yorker published "The Lottery" in 1948, causing outrage throughout much of America, Shirley Jackson remained silent about the actual meaning of the story. Today, the common assumption is that the German population's acceptance of the Nazi death camps served as inspiration for her story (why would otherwise decent people commit such a heinous act?). Critics also contend that the village in the story is modeled after her hometown of North Bennington, Vermont, a place where Jackson commented on the anti-Semitism her father faced there.
However, in an article for the San Francisco Chronicle in 1948, Jackson provided a clear explanation for the story:
Explaining just what I had hoped the story to say is very difficult. I suppose, I hoped, by setting a particularly brutal ancient rite in the present and in my own village to shock the story's readers with a graphic dramatization of the pointless violence and general inhumanity in their own lives.
This idea of "pointless violence and general inhumanity" in ordinary people's lives could be seen in many historical events during this time period. In the rural South, the public often treated the lynchings of innocent black Americans as a time to gather and celebrate. During World War II, a plurality of Americans approved of the internment of Japanese Americans in camps. Jim Crow laws and segregation were entrenched in the South at this time.
Overall, the idea that "The Lottery" refers to a specific event really limits the strength of the story. The story can be broadly interpreted as a case study of how people, when surrounded by tradition and group pressure to do something, generally follow whatever the norm may be.
This is an interesting question!
One of the major cultural institutions this story could be satirizing and commenting on is the military draft. The United States instituted the draft in 1940, and 50 million American men registered for the draft by the end of World War II. While there are major differences between the two rituals, both involve a major element of chance, social responsibility, and the likelihood of death. Because so many families had experienced this, this would have loomed large in their minds.
Of course, there are older traditions of human sacrifice. Many ancient cultures used human sacrifice, and, like the mention of "Lottery in June, corn be heavy soon," these sacrifices were often intended to please the gods, and/or as an exchange or payment for future good favor, like good crops or success in war.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/ancient/british_prehistory/human_sacrifice_01.shtml
https://www.nationalww2museum.org/students-teachers/student-resources/research-starters/draft-and-wwii
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